Next election

Kristof Dascher (Regensburg): A City Shape Explanation of Why Donald Trump Won. Polling data shows Republicans turned out for Trump in 2016 because of the Supreme Court — they’re about to get exactly what they want. How Democrats plan to turn Kennedy’s retirement into a political win. How Democrats can shut down the Senate (and part 2). Trump is nothing without the Senate — and so are the Democrats. Researchers wager on a possible Deepfake video scandal during the 2018 U.S. midterm elections. The midterms will make us more divided than ever.

Brian Beutler on how the media doesn’t have to blow the next election. No, Bill Maher, a recession wouldn’t guarantee a Trump loss in 2020. What nonvoters really think: There are tens of millions of them, and they could seal Trump’s political fate.