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Will Putin fall victim to one of history’s classic blunders?

Alexander Korolev (NUS): The Ukrainian Crisis and the End of the Cold War. From FP, Counterinsurgency 101 in Ukraine: James Stavridis on how to fend off the Russians, in seven simple steps; you can't beat Putin, because he's already won: Daniel Altman on a game theory guide to understanding the cynical genius of Russia’s president; and seriously, what did you expect Russia to do? Ellie Knott on how not all ethnic Russians in Crimea have a political affinity with Moscow. Gerard Toal and John O’Loughlin on how people in South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transnistria feel about annexation by Russia. Jessica Phelan on 7 parts of Russia that other countries could call theirs. Martin W. Lewis on Ukrainian regionalism and the federal option. Russia is an arsonist, pretending to be a fire safety inspector: Michael Weiss on the Moscow playbook — predict chaos in Ukraine, then unleash it. Xenophobic chill descends on Moscow. Angus Roxburgh on how the mood in Moscow has gone from nationalist to chauvinist. To Russia With Love: For 20 beautiful years, his homeland was open and (kind of) free — now, Keith Gessen fears, it’s closing back up. From TNR, Leonid Ragozin on how Vladimir Putin is accidentally bringing eastern and western Ukraine together; Timothy Snyder on how Ukrainian extremists will only triumph if Russia invades; and Julia Ioffe on how Russia has basically invaded Ukraine again and why Kiev isn't shooting back. Will Putin fall victim to one of history’s classic blunders? From Napoleon to Bush, there's good precedent on why it's a bad idea for Russia to invade eastern Ukraine (or go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line). What does the Geneva agreement mean for Ukraine?